Thursday, January 03, 2008

Edwards by Two Percent...

...and Huckabee by five! That's my prediction for the Iowa caucuses tonight. On the Democratic side I think Obama will be second and Hillary third, but it's going to be mighty close and given the 15% viability threshold a lot depends on the delegates' second choices.

The only two Republicans effectively in the Iowa race are Huckabee and Romney, but with roughly a third of Republican delegates still supporting candidates who won't meet the 15% cutoff the results could be close or it could be a blowout.

The best place to keep an eye on electoral trends is Pollster.com, and I've taken the liberty of including their most recent Iowa charts below. Check out Pollster.com, it's a great resource for political wonks!

Pollster.com-Final_2008_Iowa_Dem_Trends-600
Pollster.com-Final_2008_Iowa_Rep_Trends-600