Friday, November 03, 2006

Friday 'Toons - Special Election Edition!

Some make you laugh. Some make you cry. I hope they all make you think.


I was a Dean supporter in '04, and when he lost the primary I worked hard for Kerry. But I never really liked Kerry all that much, although I think he would have been a quite capable President. Of course the bar is set pretty low in that regard right now.

So I'm not terribly upset that Kerry shot himself in the foot with his latest verbal gaff. On the other hand, we do need to keep this in perspective...

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

WI Attorney General's Race is Tight!

*** UPDATED 11/2/06 ***
Here's a look at the poll numbers in the Wisconsin Attorney General's race:

10/16WPR/St Norbert44%38%
10/23WI Realtors Assoc35%42%
10/30UW Badger Poll44%*39%*


*Likely voters

(If you know of other polls please post them in the comments)

There are still a lot of undecideds in this race, but unlike in the WI Governor's race (see my analysis here) they aren't likely to break really strongly for either candidate. Still, Van Hollen will probably pick up more undecideds than Falk, and this could give him a net gain of a few percent.

Given that, and the historical Republican GOTV advantage, this is a really tight race with no clear leader. Every single vote is going to count. If you haven't yet volunteered to help with GOTV efforts do it NOW! Contact the Democratic Party of Wisconsin at (608) 255-5172.

WI Governor's Race - Doyle in Trouble?

The latest polls in the Wisconsin Governors race are all over the map, from showing the race tied (Zogby, 10/27) to Doyle up by 14% (University of Wisconsin, 10/26). A better and more realistic measure is the average of several polls, and does exactly that for almost every race they track. As shown in the chart below, the average of the last five polls shows Doyle ahead by 4%: 48% to 44% with 8% undecided (third party supporters are listed as undecided in this breakdown).

While a 4% lead for Doyle is probably pretty close to the truth, this may not be enough for Doyle to win on November 7th due to two factors. The first is that undecideds tend to break two-thirds for the challenger, which would give Green a net 3% boost. Even though some of the undecideds are third party supporters this doesn't help Doyle because most of those are probably Green Party voters.

The other factor is GOTV. Republicans have a better GOTV machine in Wisconsin (and nationally) than Democrats. This typically gives Republican candidates a one to two percent boost on election day.

Put those together and Doyle could be in trouble. On the other hand, Democrats may be more motivated to vote this year than usual, which might help offset Republican GOTV efforts. On the other other hand, the gay marriage and death penalty ballot questions were put there specifically to pull out right-wing voters

So it looks like this election will come down to the wire, and every vote is going to count. If you haven't volunteered to help with GOTV efforts you need to do so. Contact the Democratic Party of Wisconsin at (608) 255-5172. Do it NOW!

Monday, October 30, 2006

"We've Never Been Stay the Course..."

They think we're stupid. The really scary thing is that they might just be right.

IMHO this video from thesilentpatriot is the best version out there. Short and to the point, it would be a great TV ad. Far superior to the DLC's version.