Wednesday, November 01, 2006

WI Governor's Race - Doyle in Trouble?

The latest polls in the Wisconsin Governors race are all over the map, from showing the race tied (Zogby, 10/27) to Doyle up by 14% (University of Wisconsin, 10/26). A better and more realistic measure is the average of several polls, and does exactly that for almost every race they track. As shown in the chart below, the average of the last five polls shows Doyle ahead by 4%: 48% to 44% with 8% undecided (third party supporters are listed as undecided in this breakdown).

While a 4% lead for Doyle is probably pretty close to the truth, this may not be enough for Doyle to win on November 7th due to two factors. The first is that undecideds tend to break two-thirds for the challenger, which would give Green a net 3% boost. Even though some of the undecideds are third party supporters this doesn't help Doyle because most of those are probably Green Party voters.

The other factor is GOTV. Republicans have a better GOTV machine in Wisconsin (and nationally) than Democrats. This typically gives Republican candidates a one to two percent boost on election day.

Put those together and Doyle could be in trouble. On the other hand, Democrats may be more motivated to vote this year than usual, which might help offset Republican GOTV efforts. On the other other hand, the gay marriage and death penalty ballot questions were put there specifically to pull out right-wing voters

So it looks like this election will come down to the wire, and every vote is going to count. If you haven't volunteered to help with GOTV efforts you need to do so. Contact the Democratic Party of Wisconsin at (608) 255-5172. Do it NOW!


R2K said...

: )

deke said...

I think the poll chart is a wonderful way to view the political landscape. Thanks for posting it.

The national trend for undecideds breaking for the Democratic candidates over the past week should also be good news for Doyle. I do think Statehouse races are becoming nationalozed in this cycle due to the GOP woes. That will only help us.

As for the Zogby poll, do not let that enter into how you view the race. The way they conduct a poll makes it worthless.

You are right that we need to work hard until the polls close on the 7th.