Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Establishment Verses Reformers

You'll hear a lot of explanations for Hillary Clinton's somewhat surprising victory in NH yesterday, strong support from single women, great field work, backlash from negative attacks, and so on. Here's one you probably won't see discussed very much:
"Obama did well in the (geographical) areas where in 2004 Dean did well, while Clinton's performance appears to have roughly mirrored Kerry's".
Being the "establishment" candidate gives you a huge advantage in terms of organization and the ability to get your supporters to the polls. It was a big part of why Kerry won the nomination in '04, and it's why I think Hillary is likely to be the Democratic candidate this fall.