Saturday, November 22, 2008

"The Last Time We Vote For Bigotry"

My title is from a Huffington Post article in which the author argues that gays should never again back a presidential candidate, like Obama, who doesn't support gay marriage. While you can debate the effectiveness of such a strategy, it looks like it's already happening. Exit polls from November's election show a startling trend: Gays have deserted the Democratic party at rates far higher than any other group.

The chart below, from, shows shifts in presidential voting patterns compared to 2004. Groups below the horizontal line voted more Republican in 2008 than in 2004. While Obama did amazingly well with almost every demographic, there are three groups where he lost votes compared to Kerry: "Small town" (-6%), "Decide last three days" (-8%), and "Gay" (-11%).

(Click on the chart for a version you can actually read)

Although I don't have the data to prove it, my guess is that this is a result of Democratic-leaning gays not voting, rather than gays as a group becoming more Republican. If so, this likely occurred more in safe states like California than in swing states like Wisconsin.

This trend will probably continue, and perhaps even accelerate, until the Democratic Party finally elects a presidential candidate who openly supports gay marriage. While it's unlikely to affect the top of the ticket, it could have an impact in close races further down the ballot.

In the past Democrats have almost always paid a price for supporting gay rights. In the future they will increasingly pay that price for not doing so.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Obama's Lieberman Gamble

On the flip side, the best argument I've seen for being nice to Lieberman is this Time Magazine article. Only time will tell if Obama made the right decision, but I sure hope it was made very clear to Lieberman that if he steps one inch off the ranch in the future he'll instantly be demoted to bellboy with a brand new office somewhere in the boiler room of the Senate Office Building.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Why I Love Dailykos

Markos tells it like it is...


VA-Gov: Would you buy shit from McAuliffe?


[Terry] McAuliffe’s pals dismiss such criticism and say his unique blend of charm and cash will prove irresistible.

"Terry could sell shit to the zoo," explains longtime pal Paul Begala. "He’s the best salesman in the world."

Right. Is that why Democrats made huge gains during his tenure as DNC chairmanship in those ass-kicking 2002 and 2004 elections? Is that why Hillary Clinton is President of the United States?

Terry McAuliffe can obviously sell shit to Paul Begala. He has a harder time selling it to people outside his circle of shit-buying friends.