UPDATED 10/11/06
Both the DCCC and the NRCC continue to pour money into this race. No sign anything has changed yet. A couple of smaller PAC's have jumped in to support Gard, but their spending is dwarfed by that of the Campaign Committees. Total outside spending is now over a million dollars, and continuing to increase at a rate of about two hundred thousand dollars a week.
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Lots of outside money is flowing into the 8th Congressional District race between Steve Kagen and John Gard, almost all of it for attack ads. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have been pumping dollars into this race. Each has spent well over a quarter million so far this month, with over 95% of that on both sides for negative ads.
Here are the details, as pulled from PoliticalMoneyLine:
DCCC
10/6/2006 - $9,750 for production of ads against Gard
10/3/2006 - $88,047 for ads against Gard
9/29/2006 - $9,151 for production of ads against Gard
9/26/2006 - $67,604 for ads against Gard
9/26/2006 - $18,516 for ads in support of Kagen
9/21/2006 - $5800 for production of ads in support of Kagen
9/21/2006 - $5800 for production of ads against Gard
9/20/2006 - $84,107 for ads against Gard
9/12/2006 - $82,065 for ads against Gard
9/12/2006 - $8,900 for production of ads against Gard
9/5/2006 - $80,907 for ads against Gard
9/5/2006 - $8,200 for production of ads against Gard
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Totals: $24,316 for positive ads, $444,531 for attack ads
NRCC
10/10/2006 - $4,411 for phone calls against Kagen
10/9/2006 - $4,818 for phone calls against Kagen
10/6/2006 - $83,985 for ads against Kagen
10/4/2006 - $8,235 for survey
9/29/2006 - $89,278 for ads against Kagen
9/28/2006 - $7,560 for production of ads against Kagen
9/22/2006 - $84,210 for ads against Kagen
9/20/2006 - $11,417 for survey
9/15/2006 - $89,130 for ads against Kagen
9/14/2006 - $7,448 for production of ads against Kagen
9/8/2006 - $78,766 for ads against Kagen
9/5/2006 - $75,987 for ads against Kagen
9/1/2006 - $7,192 for production of ads against Kagen
9/1/2006 - $813 for production of ads against Kagen
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Totals: $19,652 for surveys, $533,598 for attack ads
National Right to Life PAC
10/10/2006 - $5,239 for mailing flyers in support of Gard
10/6/2006 - $12,049 for printing flyers in support of Gard
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Total: $17,288 for ads in support of Gard
Trust in Small Business PAC
9/25/2006 - $6,930 for cable ads in support of Gard
9/25/2006 - $4,610 for production of ads in support of Gard
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Total: $11,540 for ads in support of Gard
A couple of interesting things here. First of all, the fact that both Congressional Committees are involved shows that they believe this is a competitive race that could go either way. And it's pretty typical for them to run lots of attack ads. Part of the reason for this is that outside groups can't coordinate their efforts with campaigns, so it often makes more sense for them to just attack the other guy rather than to risk messing up their own candidate's message discipline by running ads in his favor. I'm not trying to justify this, just explain it.
The NRCC just did a survey in this race, and this is a national pattern. They've spent a lot of money this cycle on surveys and on mailings, while the DCCC is concentrating on TV ads. Since the Republicans are usually ahead of us and do a better job in terms of the mechanics of campaigns, there's probably a lesson to be learned here.
Both the DCCC and the NRCC continue to pour money into this race. No sign anything has changed yet. A couple of smaller PAC's have jumped in to support Gard, but their spending is dwarfed by that of the Campaign Committees. Total outside spending is now over a million dollars, and continuing to increase at a rate of about two hundred thousand dollars a week.
------------
Lots of outside money is flowing into the 8th Congressional District race between Steve Kagen and John Gard, almost all of it for attack ads. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have been pumping dollars into this race. Each has spent well over a quarter million so far this month, with over 95% of that on both sides for negative ads.
Here are the details, as pulled from PoliticalMoneyLine:
DCCC
10/6/2006 - $9,750 for production of ads against Gard
10/3/2006 - $88,047 for ads against Gard
9/29/2006 - $9,151 for production of ads against Gard
9/26/2006 - $67,604 for ads against Gard
9/26/2006 - $18,516 for ads in support of Kagen
9/21/2006 - $5800 for production of ads in support of Kagen
9/21/2006 - $5800 for production of ads against Gard
9/20/2006 - $84,107 for ads against Gard
9/12/2006 - $82,065 for ads against Gard
9/12/2006 - $8,900 for production of ads against Gard
9/5/2006 - $80,907 for ads against Gard
9/5/2006 - $8,200 for production of ads against Gard
------------
Totals: $24,316 for positive ads, $444,531 for attack ads
NRCC
10/10/2006 - $4,411 for phone calls against Kagen
10/9/2006 - $4,818 for phone calls against Kagen
10/6/2006 - $83,985 for ads against Kagen
10/4/2006 - $8,235 for survey
9/29/2006 - $89,278 for ads against Kagen
9/28/2006 - $7,560 for production of ads against Kagen
9/22/2006 - $84,210 for ads against Kagen
9/20/2006 - $11,417 for survey
9/15/2006 - $89,130 for ads against Kagen
9/14/2006 - $7,448 for production of ads against Kagen
9/8/2006 - $78,766 for ads against Kagen
9/5/2006 - $75,987 for ads against Kagen
9/1/2006 - $7,192 for production of ads against Kagen
9/1/2006 - $813 for production of ads against Kagen
------------
Totals: $19,652 for surveys, $533,598 for attack ads
National Right to Life PAC
10/10/2006 - $5,239 for mailing flyers in support of Gard
10/6/2006 - $12,049 for printing flyers in support of Gard
------------
Total: $17,288 for ads in support of Gard
Trust in Small Business PAC
9/25/2006 - $6,930 for cable ads in support of Gard
9/25/2006 - $4,610 for production of ads in support of Gard
------------
Total: $11,540 for ads in support of Gard
A couple of interesting things here. First of all, the fact that both Congressional Committees are involved shows that they believe this is a competitive race that could go either way. And it's pretty typical for them to run lots of attack ads. Part of the reason for this is that outside groups can't coordinate their efforts with campaigns, so it often makes more sense for them to just attack the other guy rather than to risk messing up their own candidate's message discipline by running ads in his favor. I'm not trying to justify this, just explain it.
The NRCC just did a survey in this race, and this is a national pattern. They've spent a lot of money this cycle on surveys and on mailings, while the DCCC is concentrating on TV ads. Since the Republicans are usually ahead of us and do a better job in terms of the mechanics of campaigns, there's probably a lesson to be learned here.
It looks like the DCCC is planning to run another round of ads in the near future because they just paid to produce a couple of new ones. No response yet by the NRCC, although if their polling shows that Gard is still in the running they will probably do the same in the next couple of days.
DISCLAIMER: I want to get this out of the way now, and I won't mention it again. I've met and talked to Steve Kagen, and in my opinion he's an arrogant jerk. I'm not at all convinced he's anything close to being a progressive, and I think a lot of good Democrats in the 8th CD are in for a rude awakening.
But he won the primary, and he is our candidate, and I, being a generally rational person, would much rather see him in that seat than John Gard.
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