Friday, February 22, 2008

'08 WI Democratic Presidential Primary Results Map

This map shows the margins of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary for each Wisconsin county. Usually I do an analysis when I create these sorts of maps, but I'm kind of stumped. The county results show little correlation with past general election results, recent state primary results, media markets, or anything else I've previously looked at. The exit polls aren't much help either, nothing jumps out at me that could really explain the county patterns.

So I'm just going to throw this back to you all. Leave a comment if you have a theory, and if the time involved isn't too great I'll check it out and post the results. Maybe you'll see something obvious that I'm missing. Thanks!

6 comments:

jon said...

Seems like the counties that are less populated and (assuming) more conservative went with Clinton. (Although I can't say much for NW Wisconsin)

Anonymous said...

Not knowing for sure the population my guess was that county population might have a play in the breakdown as well as density with cities if any.

But the more conservative answer I would have to disagree. If that is a factor than it should overlay with previous elections.

Northwoods said...

Seems counties in Minneapolis media market did well for Clinton. Also, as Jon stated, Madison and Milwaukee turned out for Obama.

Russell Wallace said...

I looked at the population angle, and there might be something to it, but at could also be voter age rather than population density. Usually areas with higher population density also have a higher percentage of young people, and voter age was one of the few things in the exit polls that correlated strongly with the way people voted.

NW Wisconsin just messes everything up, though. I don't think being in the Minnesota media market can explain it because Douglas County, which was Clinton's best county in the entire state, isn't really in that market.

Maybe I need to take a more mathematical approach to this and actually calculate correlations for a mess of different things and see what sticks. More homework...

Anonymous said...

Hey Russell, before you take on that assignment, how about an Assembly version of your excellent WI Senate Partisan Voter Index?

Russell Wallace said...

Working on it...